1. Treat Hold’em as a Business

Step number one: It’s time to think of poker differently than you’ve thought before. These seven concepts, each attached to the other, will get you in the right frame of mind.

1. Just knowing poker isn’t enough; you need to play seriously…
2. Playing poker seriously isn’t enough; you need to play poker ample hours to earn a living…
3. Playing poker seriously ample hours to earn a living isn’t enough; you need to play in the right places…
4. Playing poker seriously ample hours to earn a living in the right places isn’t enough; you need to play at the right times…
5. Playing poker seriously ample hours to earn a living in the right places at the right times aren’t enough; you need to play against the right people…
6. Playing poker seriously ample hours to earn a living in the right places at the right times against the right people isn’t enough; you need to play your best game all the time…
7. Playing poker seriously ample hours to earn a living in the right places at the right times against the right people and playing your best game all the time is enough- if you keep records!

2. Keep Records

Records aren’t just for your accountant or for your taxes. You need to keep them to analyze what works. Which games are better for you? Which limits? Which opponents? Which casinos? Which hours? Use these statistics just as a good baseball manager would to make strategic decisions like when to bunt, when to steal bases, when to use a left-handed pitcher.

Additionally, when you have records, you can’t con yourself about how well you’re doing. You must face reality, and that can motivate you to improve and stay focused.

And never destroy your records.  It’s okay to declare a new campaign and start fresh, but keep those old records for reference.  In fact, starting over with a new campaign isn’t a bad idea.  The past is the past, and presumably you’ve learned new things, decided on better strategies, and maybe determined to apply new disciple from this point onward. Fine. Then there’s no reason you can’t declare your brand new campaign, the “New you,” just like a baseball team begins a new season. And you don’t even need to wait for the last season to end, if it will please you psychologically to begin anew right now.  You can even give this campaign a name.  Call it “Hold’em Shock and Awe” or whatever makes you happy.

But wait!

Before you begin that new campaign, make sure you do not destroy your old records. I made this mistake when I first started out, and I wish I had all my early records now to contrast theem to my current experiences.

Keep very detailed records. They will help you.

3. Choose the Right Location

Remember, you’re thinking of a poker game as your business. In order to succeed you need to do business in the right location. In poker, you get to choose the location where you’ll do business every time you play. Choosing the right location-meaning the right game- is so important that it doesn’t just determine how much you win. It often determines if you win. And once you’re in a game, deciding correctly whether to stay or quit is critical.

Suppose you want to open a restaurant. You’ve heard the old adage, “The three keys to retail business success are location, location, and location.” Perhaps that’s a little overstated, because there are many other factors to consider and things to do when establishing a restaurant or setting up a successful retail store. But, location is often the most important, because if customers can’t find you and visit you easily, they will usually shop elsewhere. The point is, you want to do business where you have access to the best customers, so you can make the most money.

Poker is the same way. And, in poker, your weakest opponents are your best customers. If you’re a serious player or a professional, when you take a seat in a poker game, you’re setting up shop. You’ve opened for business. Suppose you had to buy a license to sit in that one seat at that one table for years to come. Then you’d have to hope you’d chosen a good casino and that the players who challenged you day after day would be easy to beat (good customers) and that the game would be the limits you want.

Fortunately, it doesn’t work like that. There’s no license required, and you don’t need to build or lease a seat at a table, freezing you to a single location. One of the great things about poker as a business is that you get to choose your best location every time you play! It’s like opening your restaurant in what you perceive to be the best location, but three superior restaurants suddenly open around you, under-pricing your meals and taking your business. Wouldn’t you like to just plop down your restaurant somewhere else tomorrow, and keep the profits flowing?

Well, that’s almost exactly how it works with poker. If there are better games elsewhere, you move. You do business at a new location. Sometimes changing seats to get a positional advantage on an opponent is valuable by itself. In other words, you might not need to move your poker business to another table or to a casino clear cross town. You might simply decide to use the storefront next door (an adjoining seat at the poker table).

And since location is the key to your poker profit, you better take advantage of this amazing opportunity. You’d be surprised how many knowledgeable players fail to use the concept of location to their advantage.

4. Time is Money

Here’s one of the most important concepts about the business of poker. In poker, it isn’t money you should be thinking about. Money takes care of itself if you play correctly. What matters most is time.

If you’re fairly good player making two minimum bets per hour, whenever you make a mistake costing you two bets, that’s a whole hour you need to make up. Each time you play poorly for a session, you might need to invest days undoing the damage. Think of poker as an exercise in accumulating the most “good” hours possible. Each time you stray from your best game or spend time in the wrong game, those are hours wasted.

To read more purchase Caro’s Most Profitable Hold’em Advice.

Sometimes the simplest things are right in front of us and we don’t even notice.

We tend to get caught up in the moment and because of it, many a shining opportunity is missed.

So it was for the Everly Brothers, the popular singing duo back in the 60’s. Phil Everly has stated in an interview that Bob Dylan offered the song LAY LADY LAY to them backstage after an appearance by the duo in New York. Phil Everly asked Dylan if he had any new songs that they might record, and answering “yes,” Dylan picked up a guitar and proceeded to sing the song so quietly that the Everlys thought they heard Dylan sing “Lay lady lay, lay across my big breasts, babe.”

Thinking it was a song about lesbians, Don Everly declined the song, saying “thank you, it’s a great song, but I don’t think we could get away with that.” Dylan did not question them about it and went on to record the song himself.

Months later, they heard Dylan’s version on the radio and realized they’d misunderstood the words. The Everlys realized they’d missed a big opportunity and later recorded the song on their EB 84 album.

So it goes with missed chances. The same happens to handicappers when working up a game. Sometimes we dismiss common logic for fear of making a mistake, or simply because we refused to clean the wax out of our ears.

Take, for instance, the golden opportunity of backing a healthy dog that found itself laying points over an extended period of games. Our database concurs, telling us to –

PLAY ON any college football conference dog of 6 or more points if they were favored in each of their previous seven games in a row.

These rare, quality dogs have gone 33-16-1 ATS in this situation since 1980.

Last year found two teams qualifying when Southern Miss beat Central Florida, and Nevada stunned Boise State – both winning straight up as DOUBLE DIGIT DOGS!

Looking deeper, this 33-16-1 ATS play improves to 17-3-1 ATS when our quality dog is taking on an undefeated opponent.

And if the undefeated foe arrives off a win of 20 or more points in its last game, our top quality dog improves to 14-1 ATS, winning almost half the games in straight-up fashion (7-8 SU).

This week we find the Georgia Bulldogs looking to lay one on top-ranked and undefeated LSU.

So, as Bob Dylan said:

“Why wait any longer for the world to begin
You can have your cake and eat it too
Why wait any longer for the one you love
When he’s standing in front of you
Lay lady lay, lay across my big brass bed.”

By Marc Lawrence

All good things come to an end. That’s a given. Whether it’s a winning run at the tables in a casino or a dream date with a stone-cold fox, the fact of the matter is both will eventually turn to crap long before you’d like.

The same holds true for football players and their teams. Once a prince and now a pauper is the storyline behind many a team from one season to the next.

With that thought in mind, singer-songwriter Bob Dylan penned a song in the early ‘70’s titled KNOCKIN’ ON HEAVEN’S DOOR. The tune describes the feelings and impressions of a dying deputy, who can no longer continue his role as a law enforcer. Having come up short today on his capabilities in the past, he’s now faced with dealing with the situation.

It also fits the bill for college football teams that languished in the glory of a bowl season the previous year, only to fall far short the following year. This bitter disappointment often times meets with tragic results, especially in the pointspread wars.

That’s confirmed by our powerful database as it reminds us to –

PLAY AGAINST any sub .500 college football road team in its last game of the season if they were a bowl team last year and were a dog of less than 10 points in their previous game.

Teams in this role that were losers last season know the drill. It’s the guys that donned bowling shirts at the conclusion of the season last year that are walking in a dead man’s skin. That’s evidenced by a 6-21-2 ATS mark by teams performing in this role since 1990.

The knocking on the door you hear this week comes from the likes of Miami Ohio on Tuesday, along with East Carolina and Maryland on Saturday.

Worse, bring these same teams in as a dog of 3 or more points and they’re ready for the undertaker, going 0-20 SU and 2-16-2 ATS.

Last year witnessed Houston taking 9.5 points at Texas Tech in a 35-20 loss, and Rutgers pushing a 21-point spread in a 35-14 defeat at West Virginia.

This year’s outclassed dogs look to be Miami Ohio and Maryland.

By the way, there is a 0-13-2 ATS perfect ‘play against’ tightener inside this play. Be sure to check it out at our website at www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the 2011 BLACK BOOK SYSTEMS link inside the BETTING TOOLS menu on the home page for all the details.

While it may mean the end of the line for certain disappointed teams, it’s a refreshing knock on Heaven’s Door for the handicapper savvy enough to pay his respects, if you know what I mean…

By Marc Lawrence

Weekends are the reward for a job well done. The time to kick back, relax and let it all hang out. And if you’re the kind who just can’t make it to the weekend, you’ll be glad to know that in Jimmy Buffett’s world it’s 5:00 o’clock somewhere – and it’s Margaritaville. No stress. No strain. Just a cold one or two to take the edge off.

For workaholics, however, chilling is just another word for the office air conditioner being set too low. Weekends are a time to button up all the loose ends and catch up on the work not quite completed. For college football teams, chillin’ is a week off during the season. It’s a time to heal battered bodies and take a breather from the physical pounding and pressure of knocking heads with the enemy.

When it comes to dealing with a week of rest in college football, one thing is absolutely for certain: teams playing at home with the combination of rest and revenge are definitely the ‘right side of the game.’ That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, all teams in this role are 434-375-12 ATS – or a 53.6% winning proposition. Better yet, bring them in off a confidence-building win and they improve mightily to 219-163-8 ATS.

Knowing we had created a rock-solid 57% wining angle based on over 400 results, I went in search of looking for a nice subset that could win in a breeze. What I found was simple. By using the same recipe, I found that if I were to –

PLAY ON any college conference home dog or ‘pick’ in its Last Home Game of the season that is playing off a win with rest and revenge

it would result in a cool 33-17 ATS winning situation. To that I say, hey bartender, set me up with another one! All we need to make our ice-cold companion is bring the opponent in off a SU and ATS win – and our angle zooms up to 20-4 ATS. Now that’s what I call a genuine, thirst-quenching libation!

And for a near-perfect chaser, bring our team in with a win percentage of .800 or less against an opponent with a winning record. This concoction is the perfect twist to a season-ending party, going 20-1 ATS since 1980. This week Iowa State will be ‘Just Chillin’ when they host the high-flying Cowboys from Oklahoma State.

Sit back, relax, and order up!

By Marc Lawrence
Playbook Ent.

Let me ask you. Is there any better feeling than watching two undefeated teams square off head-to-head late in the season? I think not.

Like a battle of unbeaten heavyweights, both football teams come ready to rumble. The loser is often relegated to a lesser non-desirable bowl at season’s end, taking on the appeal of last week’s ham sandwich. In the process, the winner stays alive in his quest for feasting on an invitation to a BCS banquet.

So what is the best approach when it comes to handicapping a pair of unbeaten dynamos? Simply put, by applying a portion of our golden rule of handicapping (three things can happen when you bet on a dog and two of them are good), we automatically put ourselves on the ‘right side’ of games like these by simply making a case for the underdog.

Take my word for it, you’ll want to fasten your seat belts in games involving undefeated combatants on a crash course. That’s attested by the fact that if you were to –

PLAY ON the underdog in any regular season college football game from Game Six on out if both teams own a 1.000 win percentage…

– airbags would not be needed as the underdog in these head-on collisions is 40-19-1 ATS since 1980, including 26-8-2 ATS if the favored opponent is off a SU and ATS win in its last game.

By the way, we zoom right to the top of the crash course ratings by simply using the underdog in these head-to-head contests that allows less than 13.5 PPG on the season. These Collision Course dogs are ‘best in show’, going 19-3 ATS – winning 15 of the games in straight-up fashion!

Buckle up, bucko, as LSU takes to the highway against Alabama in this battle of SEC unbeatens. Gentlemen, start your engines…

By
Marc Lawrence
Playbook Ent.

I sat by his deathbed one Saturday afternoon. He remained steadfastly fearless and unafraid to look death in the eye. Determined, more than ever, to win yet one more fight. Yet he looked so tired, so beaten-up and gnarled from all the recent battles that I didn’t think he was going to make it another day. And this day I was right.

It probably had more to do with what I once remember than what I see today. It is his hard to accept him this way, given his disdain for losing. Nonetheless, there comes a day in every man’s life when it’s time – time to say goodbye to the ones we’ve come to love and admire.

Before I get too syrupy here, let me remind you that this is a football publication and I’m talking about football teams, not friends or relatives. More specifically, undefeated football teams, if you will.

When the discussion turns to college football teams that are charting an unbeaten course, there are generally two roads to choose – the before and the after. Namely, how teams perform in games when they are undefeated, and how they respond once they’ve finally tasted defeat. And since we’re mainly about predicting games in advance, our focus for this piece is on making the call, or calling the turn.

Interestingly, since 1980, college football teams that have yet to taste defeat after Game Four of the regular season are a money-burning 852-874-36 ATS (49.3%). When favored on the road against winning teams, they dip even further to 127-158-3 ATS, or 44.5%. Better yet, take them on the road in this role off a convincing double-digit ATS win (10 or more points) and they plummet to 35-61-2 ATS. That’s a rather disgusting 36.4% ATS level, or a real kick in the rear end to most bankrolls.

All of which sets the patient up for this final examination –

PLAY AGAINST any undefeated college football road favorite off a DD ATS win from Game Five out during the regular season versus a winning opponent off a win.

As you might expect, our dear old friend is about to expire, as teams in this role are just 17-48-2 ATS, covering the spread just 26% of the time. Bring the foe in off a SU and ATS win and they time out at 8-32-2 ATS! And if the foe owns a win percentage of .750 or greater, these fat road cats fall to 3-25-2 ATS, winning only 11 of the 30 of the games straight up! This week finds Stanford taking to the road, ready to get their you-know-what kicked at USC.

Last week, Wisconsin dressed up in this identical role when they invaded Michigan State and the Badgers subsequently saw the wind come put of their unbeaten balloon.

It’s like Elton John said in his classic ‘Goodbye Yellow Brick Road’ – “You know you can’t hold me forever, I didn’t sign up with you…”

Yes, it’s hard to cling to the body when what you’ve always loved most was the soul. That’s when you know it’s time to let him go…

Marc Lawrence
Playbook Ent

Sometimes, closing our eyes and painting pictures in our minds provides an everlasting canvas. We all have hopes and dreams and as long as they are alive, we can choose to make them the focal points in our existence. It’s when these faiths are destroyed that our lives begin to spiral downward and out of control.

It’s no different in college football where every team is on equal footing before the season starts. Those teams that manage to win four straight games to begin the season are the ones that feel like Virginia van Gogh (Vincent’s visionary). Suddenly, they can visualize a masterpiece season in the making. Visions of an undefeated campaign begin popping into players’ heads. Recognized by their peers as being among the best in the business, thoughts of a perfect season are now playing out.

Then, just like that – lo and behold – the dream dies. The first loss of the season occurs and what was once a desire to achieve something special is now a nightmare. What does a team do and where does it turn?

The answer to this ‘bubble-burst’ situation is almost never good news. The crash that happens immediately afterward is generally loud enough that even van Gogh could hear it through his left ear. It’s even more deafening should the team lose again for the second straight time.

The fact of the matter is college football teams who manage to start the season 4-0 or better, then suffer their first loss – and then lose again for the second time in a row – are 70-48 SU and 49-61-1 ATS in their next game when facing a conference foe, including 24-34-2 ATS at home.

But let’s not stop there, Virginia. It seems that these good teams whose hopes shatter and die for good with a second consecutive loss, are especially vulnerable when we –

PLAY AGAINST any college home team off a loss that started the season 4-0 or better if the loss was preceded by their initial loss of the season and they are facing a .500 or
greater conference opponent today.

That’s because teams in this dreaded double-letdown mode are just 25-18 SU and 13-28-2 ATS.

Think about that for a moment, if you will. Not only do these broken hearted souls lose the game 42% of the time straight up at home, they cover the spread just 32% of the time!

Worse, if they are favored in the role outlined above, they dip to 7-20-1 ATS.

Last year Florida, Missouri and USC found themselves in this identical role. The Gators lost the whole game, the Tigers won and failed to cover while the Trojans managed to defy the odds and get the money over California as we saw the signs and went 2-1 ATS by fading those dying teams.

Incidentally, bring our downtrodden favored host in off a game in which it scored less than 30 points in its last game and they drop to 3-18-2 ATS in this role. USF (South Florida) will find itself singing our tune this week.

Remember, when good teams send up a signal that they maybe dying out, cut them some slack. After all, only the good die young. See ya, Bulls!

By Marc Lawrence
Playbook Ent.

The title of this treatise is actually one of the rare songs recorded by the Rolling Stones that was not penned by Mick Jagger or Keith Richards. When they performed “Time Is on My Side” during their first guest spot on The Ed Sullivan Show, Sullivan was shocked by their appearance and declared that they would never be invited onto the show again. But rather than kicking them to the curb, he subsequently invited them back several times.

One of the Stones’ most popular tunes, “Time” was re-recorded in cover versions by numerous other artists over the years, including the likes of: The Who, Del Shannon, INXS, Tina Turner and most recently, Tim Urban on a broadcast of American Idol this spring.

For our purposes it plays into one of our favorite NFL handicapping theories, involving winless teams with rest.

Similar to our ‘WAKE UP CALL’ article penned in the 2008 edition of the BLACK BOOK™, the twist here is that the premise applies to all NFL teams that have yet to taste victory when they are coming off a Bye Week.

It’s an idea that works for two reasons. One: winless teams bring value from the oddsmaker to each game, and Two: rest does wonders for clubs that are struggling.

Our powerful database confirms both notions. For openers, dogs who are 0-4 or worse on the season have gone 149-100-9 ATS since 1980, a 59.8% winning proposition on the blind. These same teams in non-division games are 91-53-6 ATS, including a surprising 88-58-4 to the ‘OVER’ in these contests

Secondly, winless dogs playing with rest, at any stage of the season, bark as loud as any. In fact, if you were to –

PLAY ON winless NFL underdog with rest…

…you would own a super-sweet 35-21-1 ATS winning mark since 1980.

Better yet, bring these same guys in as dogs of 6 or more points and suddenly you’re talking about a 76% winning investment, as they improve to 22-7 ATS in this spot (aka: a nice name for dogs of this breed).

Incidentally, if the opponent enters the game with at least one blemish (loss) on its record, these hungry dogs with time on their side ratchet up to 19-3 ATS – while winning 11 of the 22 games in straight-up fashion. Talk about getting off the schneid!

Last year, only one team found itself howling in this role but it was a dandy when Buffalo took 12.5 points at Baltimore. The well-rested Bills responded with a stirring effort, before falling 37-34 to take home the cash.

Rolling right along, you can learn a 18-0 ATS perfect ‘best in show’ tightener inside this angle simply by checking out our website at www.PLAYBOOK.com and clicking on the 2010 BLACK BOOK link on the ‘PLAYBOOK TOOLBOX’ for all the details.

This week finds Miami and St. Louis with ‘time on their side’.

So instead of abandoning these lost puppies, “Now you always say, that you want to be free. You’ll come running back. You’ll come running back to me. Because time is on my side, yes it is…”

By Marc Lawrence
Playbook Ent.

It’s hard staying positive in these difficult times. It can often times be an exercise in frustration and humiliation when some of the things we’ve learned to like and love in the course of our lives changes as the economy continues to erode.

Lifestyle changes become the norm rather than the exception. It’s also a time when you find out exactly who your real friends are. Those willing to stand by you without benefit of personal gain or profit through good times and bad. That’s what separates the wheat from the chaff. Unconditional support.

So it is in the world of college football, too… especially for teams that are suddenly wallowing on bad times after having performed so admirably the year before.

These teams also become major moneymakers in the right role. That happens when we –

PLAY ON any sub .500 college football home team in Game Four
off one win exact if they were a bowl team last season.

Talk about hitting a positive note: these bowlers that opened the season 0-2 before finally cracking the win column in Game Three have gone 23-6-1 ATS in all Game Fours since 1990.

Last year, a torn and troubled North Carolina squad wracked by injuries and suspensions qualified when they laid 14.5 points to a resurgent East Carolina team. Pride reared its head when the Tar Heels trounced the Pirates, 42-17.

This week we’re positively optimistic about the chances of East Carolina and Troy remaining on the winning track this week.

By the way, there is a 13-0 ATS perfect ‘play on’ subset inside this strategy. You can check out our website at www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the 2011 BLACK BOOK SYSTEMS link inside the BETTING TOOLS menu on the home page for all the details.

So, as legendary singer and songwriter Bob Dylan puts it, when you find a good team that’s gone bad early on in the season, remember his sage words of advice:

“You say I let you down, you know it’s not like that.
If you’re so hurt why then don’t you show it?
You say you lost your faith but that’s not where it’s at.
You have no faith to lose and you know it…”

By

Marc Lawrence

Playbook Ent.

As we alluded to in last year’s RUBY TUESDAY piece in this publication, the world of college football is altering rapidly.

No longer is it a Saturday sport. It’s now a competition filled with 120 teams vying to fill 35 bowl games, playing every night of the week around schedules expanded to 13-plus games.

Is the product diluted? Sure it is. Do we care? No, we don’t. Not as long we get our college football fix throughout the fall into the early months of winter.

More is the operative word these days. Thanks to the kindness of the NCAA (sic), there are more football scholarships being offered these days than ever before. As a result, more coaches are employed and students are attending games.

The bottom line is the NCAA’s bottom line has never been healthier. We’ll save the argument for player royalties for another debate.

Meanwhile, along with expanded schedules comes a new twist from a handicapping perspective. It involves the psyche of teams that came this-close to a winning season last year and how they perform the following campaign. While there are a myriad of situations that abound, one of the more intriguing is one that tells us to –

PLAY AGAINST any college football road team off a win if they finished the previous season with a 6-7 record.

That’s because our powerful database reports that, entering this season, teams in this role have gone 18-36 both SU and ATS since 2000.

The damaging side effects of a 6-7 season linger on the following year. Coming oh-so-close to a winning campaign, these teams tend to lose their way when playing away from home, especially when taking to the highway off a win.

Worse, dress them up as a dog and they slip to 7-29 SU and 9-27 ATS in this road-weary role. Total confidence is lost when they are taking 13 or more points as these teams refuse to come out and play, going 0-17 SU and 1-16 ATS.

Last year witnessed one such qualifying play when Hawaii (6-7 in 2009), fresh off its 35-point romp over Idaho, took to the road at Boise State at 13.5-point underdogs. When the final dust had settled, the Warriors headed back to the island sporting a 42-7 shiner at the hands of the Broncos. Let’s see what happens when UTEP journeys to South Florida to take on the Bulls this week.

And as we’ve come to learn, there is a 0-15 ATS perfect subset inside this play. Be sure to check it out by visiting our website at www.PLAYBOOK.com and clicking on the 2011 BLACK BOOK SYSTEMS link inside the BETTING TOOLS menu on the home page for all the details.

So, as the legendary crooner Bob Dylan was once known to say,

“And don’t speak too soon, for the wheel’s still in spin,
And there’s no tellin’ who that it’s namin’.
For the loser now will be later to win,
For the times they are a changin’.”